Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari in 2026 has fans asking: where will he score his first win? An F1.com analysis of Hamilton's career stats and Ferrari's recent form highlights five circuits where the seven-time champion has the best shot at victory.
Lewis Hamilton’s blockbuster move to Ferrari in 2026 has the F1 world buzzing. After 12 seasons with Mercedes, the seven-time world champion will don the iconic red overalls. But where will he taste victory first? The official Formula 1 website crunched the numbers, analyzing Hamilton’s 84 career wins across 31 different circuits and Ferrari’s recent resurgence. The result: five tracks where the stars align for an early win.
Which tracks favor Hamilton the most?
Hamilton has won at 31 different circuits, but some are clear hunting grounds. The analysis focuses on tracks where he has multiple wins and Ferrari has shown strong form in recent seasons.
1. Silverstone (Great Britain) – 8 wins
Hamilton’s home race is his most successful circuit, with eight victories. Ferrari also won there in 2024, proving the track suits the Scuderia’s current machinery. The British Grand Prix, typically in July, could be an early-season highlight.
2. Hungaroring (Hungary) – 8 wins
Hamilton holds the record for most wins in Hungary (8). Ferrari’s last win there was in 2021, but the tight, twisty circuit demands precision and strategy—both Hamilton’s strengths. A one-stop race often plays into the hands of experienced drivers.
3. Suzuka (Japan) – 5 wins
Suzuka is a technical masterpiece requiring high downforce and driver skill. Hamilton has won five times, and Ferrari won there in 2023. The circuit’s fast corners could suit the 2026 Ferrari package.
4. Marina Bay (Singapore) – 4 wins
The Singapore street circuit is grueling in heat and humidity, but Hamilton has mastered it with four wins. Ferrari hasn’t won since 2019, but Hamilton’s ability to manage tires and traffic could break the drought.
5. Monaco – 3 wins
Monaco’s narrow streets reward bravery and precision. Hamilton has three wins here, though Ferrari hasn’t won since 2017. If the 2026 car is competitive in slow corners, Monaco could be a surprise victory.
How does Ferrari’s recent form affect predictions?
Ferrari has returned to regular race-winning form since 2022, with Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz securing multiple victories. The team’s improved reliability and strategic execution mean Hamilton won’t have to carry the entire burden. The analysis suggests that a combination of Hamilton’s track record and Ferrari’s current competitiveness makes these five circuits the most likely for a first win.
Could other tracks surprise us?
While the analysis focused on the five best bets, Hamilton has also won three times in Bahrain and five times in Abu Dhabi. However, those tracks didn’t make the top five due to Ferrari’s mixed recent results there. The season opener in Bahrain could still be a candidate if the car is strong out of the box.
When can we expect Hamilton’s first Ferrari win?
Predicting the exact race is tricky, but if the 2026 season starts well, a win could come in the first half. The Hungarian Grand Prix (late July) and Silverstone (early July) are both mid-season fixtures that offer strong chances. An early win would silence doubters and set the tone for a historic partnership.
Will Hamilton succeed at Ferrari?
The data suggests a real opportunity. Hamilton’s adaptability and Ferrari’s upward trajectory create a promising mix. If he gels quickly with the team and the car, we could witness one of the most exciting driver-team combinations in F1 history. The 2026 season can’t come soon enough.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which track is most likely for Hamilton's first Ferrari win in 2026?
According to the analysis, Silverstone (Great Britain) is the top candidate. Hamilton has won there 8 times, and Ferrari won there as recently as 2024.
Will Hamilton win in his first season with Ferrari?
It's likely if he adapts quickly to the car. Tracks like Hungary and Silverstone offer strong opportunities, but nothing is guaranteed in F1.
Which tracks has Hamilton never won on?
Hamilton has won on 31 different circuits, but he hasn't won at newer tracks like Miami or Las Vegas, nor at historic ones like Indianapolis.
How does Ferrari's recent performance affect Hamilton's chances?
Ferrari has been consistently competitive since 2022, winning multiple races. This gives Hamilton a solid foundation to fight for wins from the start of the season.
Sources
- Formula 1 Official — Where Hamilton has the best chance of winning in 2026
